On Wednesday (June 28), the oil market fell in the intraday market. There have been reports of an increase in US oil inventories, confirming the fear that the oversupply of crude oil, which has been going on for three years, is far from over.
Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% since mid-May, but some of the lost land has been recovered in the past week. However, the American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that as of June 23, US crude oil inventories increased by 851,000 barrels to 509.5 million barrels, and analysts estimated a decrease of 2.6 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels last week, although it is currently the peak season for US summer gasoline demand. US stocks growth indicates that global supply is still sufficient, despite the reduction in production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major oil producing countries.
Ian Taylor, chief executive of Vido, the world's largest independent oil trader, said that Brent crude oil will remain in the range of $40-55 per barrel in the next few quarters, as the pace of rebalancing in the market slows due to rising US production.
“Everyone had expected the market to rebalance and the inventory would fall in the second quarter. According to the macro analysis, this should start to happen,†Taylor said in an interview with Reuters.
It also pointed out, "But this has not happened so far, and everyone has made the same mistake."
However, some analysts said that crude oil prices may have bottomed out and will rise. "We believe that the crude oil decline has been excessive and Brent crude is ready to rebound," BMI Research said.
“The price of oil may be close to the bottom, but the severely damaged sentiment and the rising number of active (US) active rigs will hinder the rebound,†Citi said on Tuesday.
According to a recent article by Reuters Commodity and Energy Market Technology Analyst, wave formation and Fibonacci forecast analysis show that US crude oil futures may end their downtrend near the support of 40.82 and may rise to 48.35 in the next three months.
At 16:23 Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures price rose 0.84 to 46.85 US dollars / barrel%; US crude oil futures prices fell 0.41% to 44.06 US dollars / barrel.
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