Securities Times Network September 19th
Trainee reporter Liu Yucheng
On September 19, the central bank issued a notice saying that for the impact of the taxation period, government bond issuance and other factors, the liquidity of the banking system was basically stable, and the reverse repurchase operation of 150 billion yuan was carried out by means of interest rate bidding, including 7 days of 1300. 100 million yuan, 28 days, 20 billion yuan, the winning bid rate is 2.45%, 2.70%, the same as the previous period. On the same day, the irreversible repo expired, with a net investment of 150 billion yuan. Since this week, the central bank has invested a total of 450 billion yuan.
Insiders pointed out that September is the fiscal release month, and the short-term disturbance factors such as the tax period in the middle of the month, the liquidity is tightening, the National Day holiday is approaching, and the residents' demand for cash withdrawal will also cause certain liquidity pressure. The central bank’s large capital investment this week has helped stabilize market expectations. The financial sector will be ushered in next week, and the fabrics of the liquidity bureau will be improved.
Although the central bank has continuously opened up large-scale net operations in the market, the funds are still tight. Since last Thursday, the central bank has invested a total of 1,000, 2,000, 1,865, and 150 billion yuan respectively. The total amount of funds invested in the four working days was 636.5 billion yuan, but the funding side continued to be tense. On that day, the inter-bank pledged repo rate was mostly The increase was 1.40 basis points to 2.9886%, and the 7-day variety rose 1.43 basis points to 2.9366%. The price of most varieties of Shibor (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate) rose, and the overnight variety rose 7.60 basis points to 2.8320. %, 7-day varieties rose 2.4 basis points to 2.8680%.
On the same day, the government bond futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly, and the 5-year bond futures contract TF1712 rose 0.09% to 97.600; the 10-year government bond futures contract T1712 rose 0.08% to 95.185. In addition, the inter-bank cash yields declined slightly, and the yield of the National Open Active Bond 170210 with a remaining maturity of nearly 10 years fell by 0.89 basis points to 4.3175%; the yield of the National Bond Active Bond 170010 with a remaining maturity of nearly 10 years fell by 0.52 basis points to 3.6275. %.
Li Yong, chief analyst of the Northeast Securities Solids Department, said that since the middle and late August, except for a period of time in early September, the overall liquidity was in a relatively tight situation, and short-term interest rates rose, and the yield curve once again flattened. The trend of the yield curve is similar to that of June, and liquidity pressure is the main reason for the flattening and upside down of the yield curve. The analyst believes: "Looking forward to the market outlook, the economic fundamentals weakened in the fourth quarter, the Fed's interest rate hike and contraction have been within the market expectation, the Sino-US interest rate differential is high, and the long-end interest rate is difficult to rise again. The yield curve The repair still relies on the improvement of liquidity to drive down the short-term interest rate. The central bank revisited the one-year government bond support operation, which is conducive to the downside of short-term interest rates. Therefore, the fourth-quarter yield curve may appear as 'bull steep'. Trading opportunities."
Xu Hanfei, chief bond analyst of China Merchants Securities, believes that the rationalization of the fundamentals continues to weaken. In fact, whether the central bank's monetary policy is loose is not important for the trend of the bond market. Bonds are financial assets, most of which fluctuate from expectations, and expectations also affect bond yields. The recent strong trend of treasury futures also indicates that investors are expecting significant changes, while the current vouchers are subject to the trading fatigue caused by the inertia of funds and the market's weak shock, and the rise is lagging behind. In the next quarter, in addition to the short-term factors, it is more important that the growth rate of the bank's asset side may exceed the expected decline. The fall of the superimposed economic fundamentals is likely to raise investors' optimistic expectations for the bond market again.
(Securities Times News Center)
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