"Amazon storm" increases the risk of US stocks falling

On the 2nd, US President Trump once again opened fire on the online retail giant Amazon through social media "Twitter", accusing Amazon of being cheap in the US postal system, damaging the interests of taxpayers, and promised to take action to reverse The current situation.

The remarks quickly fermented in the US stock market, causing the three major stock indexes to plummet. The S&P 500 index fell below the 200-day moving average, the key technical indicator, and the worst April start since the US Great Depression in 1929.

Three combos in a week

According to Reuters, Trump said on Twitter that "only a fool or a worse person would say that the USPS that lost money could make money from Amazon." Trump said that the US Postal Service lost its wealth and this situation will change. He also said that Amazon's tax pay is too low, and those who pay full tax have to close the store in the United States, "not at all in an equal playing field." Amazon has not commented on this.

In fact, Trump's hitting Amazon is a commonplace. Last Thursday (March 29), Trump has issued a "Twitter" three times to criticize Amazon's business policy and tax strategy.

On March 31, Trump said on Twitter that Amazon has been squeezing USPS, causing the latter to lose hundreds of millions of dollars and smashing it for Amazon’s “running troupe” if USPS improves The cost of shipping, Amazon's transportation costs will increase by 2.6 billion US dollars.

On March 29, Trump expressed his concern about Amazon. "I have been paying attention to them for a long time before running for the presidency," Trump said on Twitter. Unlike other companies, the company pays only a small amount of taxes to states and local governments. Even the tax is not paid at all and has caused thousands of retailers to go bankrupt.

On the 2nd, Amazon shares fell 5.21% to $1371.99 per share. Last week, due to the continuous strikes by Trump, Amazon's market value has shrunk by nearly $90 billion. In addition, under the influence of this argument, the technology sector fell 2.48%. The New York Stock Exchange's three major stock indexes also ushered in a "opening black" on the first trading day in April, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.90% from the previous trading day. , 2.23% and 2.74%.

Why do you often make trouble with Amazon?

According to the US news website Axios, Trump has already locked in Amazon and intends to curb its growing power. Axios quoted five sources allegedly discussing the matter with Trump, saying that Trump had talked about using the Anti-Monopoly Law to beat Amazon because he was worried that some small retail stores would be squeezed out of the market by Amazon. The media also said that Trump hopes to adjust Amazon's tax treatment. Trump publicly called for Internet taxes on online retailers last year.

In fact, in the United States, there are many politicians like Trump who worry that the "Amazon effect" may have far-reaching and unfavorable effects on the US economy, because this effect will transform the business and the US economy as a whole, or Far stronger than political, social and cultural factors. In particular, the “Amazon effect” may expand regional inequality and income inequality in the United States. Although the change in business form is not worth worrying about in itself, the huge social spillover effect brought about by the transformation of business form is worrying.

Research shows that in the past year, US department stores cut 32,000 jobs, in contrast to non-store retailing, which added 29,000 jobs. Although the lost job opportunities of the established retail company Sears seem to be made up by Amazon, the problem is that the lost and new job opportunities are not equal. The first is the uneven geographical distribution. Sears has laid off employees in the US at almost the same time, while Amazon's new employees are concentrated in a few states. Second is the uneven salary. The above study found that in 2016, the average annual salary of e-commerce employees such as Amazon exceeded US$59,000, while the average annual salary of department store employees was only slightly higher than US$20,000. It can be seen that the reduction is the work of low-income groups and the increase of middle-class jobs.

Other studies have shown that Amazon's deterrence against American companies is even greater than Trump. According to a survey by the financial research platform Sentieo, the number of mentions of Amazon in this year's US listed companies' earnings reports and conference calls is much higher than Trump. Some government officials have confirmed to Reuters that Trump has been complaining about Amazon in private and that the company is too powerful.

In addition, the founder of Amazon, Bezos and Trump, has long been blaming for a long time, and it has also laid the groundwork for this storm. According to reports, before the election of the US president Trump and Bezos often swear, Trump has been accused Bezos to avoid tax by buying the "Washington Times", while Amazon has "a huge anti-monopoly problem." In the campaign, he said that if he was elected president, Amazon would have a big problem. Bezos said that Trump, who is running for the US president, is actually destroying American democracy. He also joked that he would use rockets to launch Trump into space.

Increase the downside risk of US stocks

USPS is currently Amazon's largest postal provider, and the price given to Amazon is indeed lower than the market price. As of now, Amazon’s details of the fees paid to the US Postal Service have not been announced, but some Wall Street analysts believe that Amazon has received a very favorable price from the US Postal Service, and the cost of sending a package may be only half that of FedEx.

But for Trump's accusation, some investment banks on Wall Street do not agree. Morgan Stanley said that the US Post received support from Amazon before it could continue to operate. Reuters quoted Wall Street analyst Tom Forte as saying that Trump’s remarks are not good for future cooperation between the US and Amazon. If Amazon abandons the US post in the future, the US post will be more deeply injured. The data shows that the US Postal Service has suffered losses for 11 consecutive years, but parcel delivery has always been a bright spot in the business. The US Postal Service needs to expand the parcel delivery business to make up for the losses caused by the decline in the business such as registered mail and the high employee welfare expenses.

Wall Street is worried that Trump's attack on Amazon may pose a downside risk to the US stock market in the short term. According to reports, Cai Jin, CEO of Cai Jin Market Analysis, said that the technology sector is the leader of US stocks in recent years, and its continued pressure on the downside has a greater negative impact on investor sentiment. Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer of the US Jinrui Fund, believes that the current US stock valuation is higher than its historical average, which leads to more volatility in the face of negative news. With the gradual advancement of the Fed's interest rate hike process, US stocks are less attractive than other fixed-income assets, and they still face adjustment pressure in the future.

According to the second revision data released by the US Department of Commerce, the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2017 increased by 2.9% year-on-year, higher than the previously announced 2.5%, but lower than the previous quarter's 3.2. %. The data also shows that the US economy grew by 2.3% for the full year of 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016. The quarterly economic forecast released by the Federal Reserve Board last week showed that the US economic growth rate was 2.7% and 2.4% respectively this year and next.

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