Hang Seng Index continues to rise for five days next week is to verify whether the trade war shadow is scattered

Take you to the resumption of May 11, 2018

There are clouds in the stock market, a K line changes mood, two K lines change views, and three K lines change beliefs. If it is "five consecutive rises"?

Since last week, Sino-US trade negotiations broke down, US stocks rose to a seven-week high last night. Hong Kong stocks achieved a "five consecutive rises" this week, rising nearly 1,200 points in a week. Today, they broke through the 31,000 mark and closed at 31,122 points. The turnover was HK$99 billion.

As said yesterday, the haze of the trade war is gradually dissipating, and in the following period, it will be a good time to verify the investor's ideas, because there will be a lot of negotiations on trade war between China and the United States.

May 11th: The deadline for the written public announcement of Trump's $50 billion Chinese product tax list to the US trade representative, covering electronic and mechanical components, televisions and automobiles.

May 15: The US trade representative holds a public hearing on the $50 billion tariff list.

May 18: The U.S. Treasury Department proposes a deadline for investment restrictions to address China’s acquisition of US sensitive technology under the “Article 301” IP survey.

May 22: The US Trade Representative submits a deadline for public hearing rebuttals and ends the tariff review period.

May 22: The US technical mandate for China ends with a 60-day consultation period for filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization. The United States can then request the Dispute Settlement Panel to rule.

Will the Hang Seng Index once again follow the news of the trade war and fall to the previous low? No one will know this. However, the marginal impact of a message will decrease over time, which is a fact.

Therefore, if the Sino-US talks do not flow out worse than before, the market is probably the market that continues to speculate.

Today, AIA (1299.HK) rose 2.4% to close at HK$72.8, and together with another constituent Sinopec (0386.HK) set a new record. AIA rose 7% this week, contributing 186 points to the Hang Seng Index, 182 points higher than the second Tencent (0700.HK) and 103 points of the third HSBC (0005.HK).

On the contrary, the rest of the insurance stocks, even China Ping An (2318.HK) holding many unicorns, have not yet broken through the pre-trade level. Although Sinopec can also achieve new highs, it is largely due to the recent rise in oil prices. In contrast to AIA, which lacks such obvious catalysts, its performance is really commendable and worthy of our deep thought.

A stock market with a market value of 880 billion Hong Kong dollars, in the turbulent stock market, long-term funds can still stand and set a new high, AIA can be regarded as the company that can best express the bidding.

Transaction stock analysis

1. Strong trend. Where will the other side Prada go?

Prada (1913.HK) recently performed well, rising 4.02% today to close at 46.60 Hong Kong dollars, the stock hit a new high in three years.

According to the information of the Stock Exchange, Prada recently received 3.018 million shares from the US financial services company OPP enheimerFunds, with an average price per share of 39.85 Hong Kong dollars and a trading capital of about 120 million Hong Kong dollars.

After the completion of the increase, OppenheimerFunds recently held approximately 1,300.362 million shares of the Prada Group, and its shareholding ratio increased from 4.96% to 5.08%.

So, does it mean that Prada will usher in a reversal? According to our previous article "PRADA (1913.HK) rose 15%, buy a package or buy stocks? 》:

With the gradual recovery of the luxury goods market, the market value of the Prada Group has returned to the 100 billion clubs, and the back of it is inseparable from the tremendous contribution of Chinese luxury consumers.

According to Bain data, in 2017 China's luxury goods sales reached US$22.07 billion, up about 20% from 2016, the largest increase since 2011, and Prada also performed well. In the second half of 2017, the company's profit increased by 10.15% year-on-year. According to the company's management, Greater China recorded double-digit growth in the last two financial quarters and January 2018.

At present, Prada has taken a series of measures to improve its business, including optimizing the global retail network, paying more attention to new young customers and launching e-commerce platforms.

From the performance point of view, Prada is gradually recovering, but there is still a certain distance from the recovery of performance. Whether it can usher in a new leap after getting rid of the bottom, the company still has many problems to be solved, investors still need to be cautious.

2, investor sentiment is gradually heating up Australia's peak high education interpretation crazy

The US stock market was higher on Thursday, market volatility continued to decline, and the three major indices collectively played strongly. Among them, the Dow rose nearly 200 points, the longest trend since February. It is worth noting that technology stocks have been rising since the Facebook data scandal in March, which has boosted investor confidence, and the confidence of US stock investors has gradually passed to the Hong Kong stock market.

The strong performance of the HSI this week has also gradually heated up investor sentiment, prompting a slight increase in the risk appetite of market funds. Affected by this, Australia's Chengfeng Higher Education (1752.HK), which is listed today, is crazy. The intraday gain was as high as 45%, and it closed up 19.70% to HK$0.395.

Xiaobian Humble, the crazy performance of Australia's Chengfeng Higher Education, although there are factors of investor sentiment, this factor may not be as big as you think, mainly due to the subscription of 209 million shares of Australia's Chengfeng Higher Education's livelihood education (1569. HK) Full-time "lying corpse", it can be seen that the market funds are still "rational" enough, or that the funds for this batch of speculation are very experienced.

Therefore, if you do not have enough short-selling ability, Xiao Bian advises you to still watch the drama, do not enter the school to pay tuition.

3, plunged 30.26% Qiu Ti Technology, is this "flying knife" available?

Last night, Qiu Ti Technology (1478.HK) issued a profit warning. It is expected that by the end of June 2018, the profit attributable to shareholders before taxation may be reduced by at least 50%. Affected by this, Qiu Ti Technology has performed violently today, plunging 30.26% throughout the day.

According to the company's announcement, there were two main reasons for the sharp decline in earnings in the first half of the year. First, the gross profit margin fell, and the second was the obvious loss of the associated company. Among them, the problem of "significant loss of associates", because Qiu Ti Technology does not disclose specific details, the outside world has no way of knowing.

Xiaobian’s ignorance, the “murderer” of Qiu Ti Technology’s plunge today is mainly due to the decline in product gross margin:

First, the industry has a clear signal . According to data released by China Information and Communication Research Institute on April 9, in April 2018, China's domestic mobile phone market shipments were 34.415 million units, down 16.7% year-on-year; from January to April 2018, domestic mobile phone market shipments were 1.22. 100 million units, down 23.7% year-on-year. Affected by this, the overall performance of the smartphone industry chain sector was fierce this year, and many of the stocks in the sector were only stocks.

Second, the low-end camera module sales accounted for a high proportion . According to the sales data released by Qiu Ti Technology, the shipment of camera modules of 8 million pixels and below accounted for 57%, and Qiu Ti was to enter through the low-priced 2 million-500-800-megapixel module products. Huawei supply chain. But unfortunately, no matter how good the low-end products are sold, they don’t make any money at all. So at first glance, the sales data of Qiu Ti is obviously improved, but it does not mean the improvement of profitability.

Hong Kong stocks resumed: Hang Seng Index continued to rise for five days, next week is a good time to verify whether the shadow of trade wars is scattered

Source: Company Information

Third, the pain of technological transformation . This year's fingerprint identification module of Qiu Ti is mainly coated, and the cover plate is relatively low, resulting in a decrease in overall gross profit margin. Although Qiu Ti has an optical down-screen fingerprint module, there is no shipment yet, so the new product cannot help increase the average unit price.

In summary, Xiao Bian believes that in the context of the slowdown in smartphone demand, the days of high-end products may be better, but in this field, Qiu Ti's competitors are too strong, if not long-term investment in research and development, Qiu Ti In the high-end sector, there will be no continuous orders. At present, Qiu Ti is more inclined to survive in the low-end field. If its profit in 2018 will not be counter-attacked, then the stock price can only be "cool", and this flying knife is still not good.

4, the stock price re-innovation Gaoyoubang insurance continued strong performance

The recent strong performance of AIA (1299.HK) re-launched today and opened higher all day. The intraday share price reached a new high, and closed up 2.39% to HK$72.8.

In the news, Internet medical company micro-medicine recently completed $500 million in Pre-IPO financing. The round of financing was led by AIA Insurance Holdings Co., Ltd. and NWS Holdings Co., Ltd., and the value of the micro-medical was $5.5 billion. At the same time, the plan for the micro-medical spin-off of its micro-medical sector in Hong Kong stocks is progressing in an orderly manner.

Xiaobian Humble, AIA’s eye-catching performance today is affected by the above news, but its long-term logic still hopes that the financial market in mainland China will continue to open . For a long time, many foreign financial institutions have been complaining about the exclusivity of the mainland financial market. Under this year's strong position, Trump has made some concessions.

Therefore, in the context of the management system and product development leading the industry, AIA's future performance in the Chinese market is worthy of investors' expectations.

5. Does Sinopec have a rising space for a record high?

Today's market has soared. Due to the continuous recovery of US stocks, several major stocks of Hong Kong stocks have risen. In the process, a large-cap stock, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (0386.HK), rose quietly by 1.63%, and after today, its share price broke the highest level in history.

Judging from the performance of the past three months, Sinopec has come out of a beautiful upward trend. Although the recent rise in oil prices is the biggest driver, but after analysts have raised oil price expectations recently, Sinopec can still go high without historical price restrictions, which really leaves a lot of imagination.

Xiao Bian believes that the turmoil in various political situations around the world has caused the recent rise in oil prices. This is difficult to predict. Whether it is up to 100usd or back to 60usd, this is all possible. If it is a short-term investor, it is better to gamble that oil prices continue to rise, or to buy crude oil futures directly.

Although Sinopec's profit conditions will be greatly improved under the current oil price environment, if the average oil price level of the current 75usd is maintained throughout the year, Sinopec is expected to increase its profit by about 44 billion this year, plus only 1 at present. Double the pb, Sinopec has a better valuation in the global petrochemical stocks. However, don't forget that after the oil price breaks through 80usd, the profit of refined oil in the downstream refining and chemical business will be damaged due to the deduction of processing profit margin, and the profit of Sinopec will decline.

Therefore, the current oil price is already the most comfortable profit price of Sinopec. For Sinopec, the current oil price is not good, and the decline is not good. In such a situation, in fact, its favorable expectations have basically been exhausted. From the perspective of long-term investment, although Sinopec's current valuation is the best among the world's petrochemical stocks, the possibility of long-term gains is still small.

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